Minnesota Future Work Scan

Minnesota Future Work Scan

Minnesota Future Work is an environmental scanning program designed to identify new and emerging occupations, the skills required for such occupations, and the education and training needed to develop such skills. For an archive of additional scans, please visit the Future Work page on ISEEK.  http://www.iseek.org/news/trends.html

For upcoming events click here: http://www.iseek.org/news/events.html

Preparing the Workers of Today for the Jobs of Tomorrow

In this report, the President’s Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) presents a projection of potential developments in the U.S. labor market over the next five to ten years and discusses the preparations necessary to develop the 21st century workforce. The report discusses the skills that will likely be most relevant in growing occupations, the value and limitations of our current post-high school education and training systems, and the characteristics of a more effective education and training structure.

At an aggregate level, the data indicate that the economy of 2016 will resemble the economy of 2008, with several important shifts that have implications for employment.

*  Health care is forecasted to remain a large source of job growth in the labor market. The long-term trend toward more employment in health care is expected to continue, with many health care occupations, including medical records and health information technicians, registered nurses, clinical laboratory technicians, and physical therapists, expected to grow.

*  Retail trade is projected to contract somewhat in terms of employment share, partly because the growth in consumer spending is expected to slow somewhat going forward.

*  The decades-long decline in the share of workers that are employed in manufacturing is expected to moderate. Some industries within manufacturing – such as aerospace and pharmaceuticals – are projected to create many jobs.

*  The construction industry is projected to eventually recover and add jobs in the coming decade. This rebuilding would generate a demand for skilled workers such as electricians and plumbers.

Well-trained and highly-skilled workers will be best positioned to secure high-wage jobs, thereby fueling American prosperity. Occupations requiring higher educational attainment are projected to grow much faster than those with lower education requirements. Growth among occupations that require an associate’s degree or a post-secondary vocational award is projected to be slightly faster than occupations requiring a bachelor’s degree or more.

[FutureWork Note: In addition to the growth rate, it is also important to consider the projected number of job openings. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, between 2006 and 2016 there will be about 11 million total job openings in the U.S. for occupations that require a bachelor's degree or more compared to about 8 million total job openings for occupations requiring an associate’s degree, post-secondary vocational award or long-term on-the-job training which often involves technical training.]

Key attributes of a well-trained workforce as well as elements of an effective education and training system are detailed below.

*  Employers value workers who can think critically and solve problems. Many highly-paid occupations require workers with good analytic and interactive skills.

*  Occupations that employ large shares of workers with post-secondary education and training are growing faster than others. While expected growth in construction and some manufacturing industries would create job opportunities at all skill levels, workers will be better positioned for good jobs if they acquire additional training and education. Occupations that have grown recently require more formal post-secondary schooling than occupations that have declined.

*  The U.S. post-high school education and training system provides valuable skills to those who complete programs in high-growth fields. However, it could be more effective at encouraging completion and responding to the needs of the labor market.

*  Elements of a more effective system include: a solid early childhood, elementary, and secondary system that ensures students have strong basic skills; institutions and programs that have goals that are aligned and curricula that are cumulative; close collaboration between training providers and employers to ensure that curricula are aligned with workforce needs; flexible scheduling, appropriate curricula, and financial aid designed to meet the needs of students; incentives for institutions and programs to continually improve and innovate; and accountability for results.

Importantly, post-secondary education and training can provide the cognitive and interactive skills required for good, high-paid, jobs. Analysis of data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) indicates that occupations with a high intensity of analytic and interactive skills tend to have large shares of workers with post-secondary education. Moreover, occupations with a high concentration of college-educated workers have been growing much faster than others.

This analysis is consistent with another set of results from the employer survey conducted by The Conference Board. Respondents noted that graduates from two- and four-year college programs were on average better prepared to meet the challenges of the labor market than high school graduates. Specifically, those with only a high school degree were reported to be deficient in professionalism/work ethic and critical thinking/problem solving.

The Conference Board also found that their survey respondents believed most recent high school graduates lacked the basic skills of reading, writing, and math that were deemed necessary by employers. Among these basic skills, employers deemed this group to be most deficient in writing. Employers judged nearly three-quarters of high school graduates as unable to write at a basic level, for which competency includes knowledge of both spelling and grammar. These rudimentary skills, combined with the applied skills of problem solving and interacting with others, are critical for workers in the current labor market according to Donna Klein, President and CEO of Corporate Voices for Working Families (a sponsor of The Conference Board Report). One member of the President’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board (PERAB) echoes this view in reporting that one-half of the job applicants to his large company cannot do basic 8th grade math. Other members of the PERAB report that many workers do not possess the basic reading and math skills necessary for even entry-level work.

Worker flexibility is key given the dynamic nature of the U.S. labor market and ongoing technological change. In 2003, for example, a quarter of American workers were in jobs that were not even listed among the Census Bureau’s Occupation codes in 1967, and technological change has only accelerated since then. Environmental-related occupations – which are expected to experience tremendous growth over the next decade – did not exist in comparable data prior to 2000. As we build a new foundation for economic growth in the 21st century, the nation’s workers will be better prepared for ever-changing opportunities if they have strong analytical and interpersonal skills. High-quality education and training is the best way to prepare the workers of today for the jobs of tomorrow.

Executive Office of the President Council of Economic Advisors July 2009 http://www.whitehouse.gov/assets/documents/Jobs_of_the_Future.pdf

The Minnesota Future Work program is operated by Daniel Wagner Wagne054@tc.umn.edu and Victor Ward vwwardmfw@comcast.net .  To add names of people to receive Future Work Scans or to notify us of a change in your e-mail address, please send an e-mail to Bruce.Steuernagel@so.mnscu.edu who manages the program.

Minnesota Future Work is funded by the Carl D. Perkins Act, Office of the Chancellor, Minnesota State Colleges and Universities.